A view on commodities

DSM

Well-Known Member
Hi Sangram,

I am locked out from TradeTiger due to some issues, and will not be able to view the charts and post my views.....

FYI

Hi Sangram,

Guess you day trade - and my view is always the same : We need to take a position based on the intraday chart as swings can be volatile and large enough to take off stops of most traders. And my observations is that it is profitable to go with the trend and chart patterns that are established around 12.30 LME open, and around 5.30 US Open.

I am not able to access my system now - will do so tomorrow and post my views......
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
Crude Inventory :

Expected inventory -488K, Actual +384K, which is negative for crude.

08/07/2015 20:00:52 : DOE US Crude oil inventories Exp {-488 K} Pre { +2386K} Actual { +384K}
 

Dax Devil

Well-Known Member
Crude Inventory :

Expected inventory -488K, Actual +384K, which is negative for crude.

08/07/2015 20:00:52 : DOE US Crude oil inventories Exp {-488 K} Pre { +2386K} Actual { +384K}
Hi, DSM, how are you, friend? Long time no see. Crude had a real free fall. Hope you made good money in crude.
Incidently a few minutes ago I covered my short positions around $51. Was lucky to get positions around 57.50. Made quite a handsome profit in a single trade lasting about a week. I am done for this month, now I will take it easy till the end of july.

Let me know how you fared in your trading. Take care, friend.
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
Thanks DD,

Great to know you did well. Had been out travelling for a week, and once back, had charting issues over the last few days. So not able to trade and ride the momentum of this week. Was just watching action on the sideline....

:(:(:(

Wise choice for you to enjoy the profit..... No point of making money if not doing so. :clap::clap::clap:

Hi, DSM, how are you, friend? Long time no see. Crude had a real free fall. Hope you made good money in crude.
Incidently a few minutes ago I covered my short positions around $51. Was lucky to get positions around 57.50. Made quite a handsome profit in a single trade lasting about a week. I am done for this month, now I will take it easy till the end of july.

Let me know how you fared in your trading. Take care, friend.
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
NG Inventory :

Expected +86B, Actual +91B - Data is negative for NG

09/07/2015 20:00:21 : EIA natural gas storage change Exp {+86 B }; Prior { +69 B }; Actual {+91 B }
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
Oil prices fall as Iran nuclear deal seems likely - HENNING GLOYSTEIN

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/13/us-markets-oil-idUSKCN0PN01820150713

Oil prices fell on Monday as Iran and six world powers were close to nailing down a nuclear deal, but high Chinese crude import figures prevented prices from tumbling further. The potential of Iran soon adding to global oil oversupply and the demand side weakening over China and Europe led several analysts to say that crude would fall further.

Iran and six world powers were on the brink of finding a nuclear deal that would bring sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's nuclear program. U.S. crude prices were down around 90 cents at $51.83 a barrel at 0226 GMT.

Front-month Brent crude futures fell around a dollar to $57.74 a barrel on the back of an expectation that a deal with Iran would lead to an easing of sanctions against Tehran and to higher crude exports. Chinese customs data showing that its crude imports in the first half of the year were up 7.5 percent compared with the same time in 2014 prevented prices from falling further despite analysts saying this was more down to stockpiling of strategic reserves than a real rise in demand.

Investors were also watching whether China's stock markets can stabilize after a barrage of government support sparked a bounce in its key CSI300 stock index. The Greek debt crisis continued as political leaders argued late into the night at an emergency summit, so far without result.

With oversupply ongoing and abundant economic risk, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and several banks said they had lowered their oil price forecasts. "The bottom of the market may still be ahead," the IEA said in its monthly report.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that U.S. crude prices "could soon drop well below our $50 per barrel target in 3Q15".
Commerzbank said that a return of Iranian supplies could add to current oversupply of 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day and that "a fall below $55 per barrel in Brent and below $50 per barrel in WTI (U.S. crude) is therefore conceivable".


During the 2,650 trading sessions since 2005, U.S. crude prices have spent a mere 178 days, or 7 percent, of the time below $50 a barrel, Reuters data shows. The sub-50 periods have been clustered into three episodes: early 2005, when prices began to rise away from historically lower levels, the post-2008 global financial crisis time and the current period of oversupply.
 

PreSap

Well-Known Member
Nice one DSM. :thumb:

You had mentioned the possibility of the Iran impact in June and its played out that way.

Please mention your insights about how you think this will play out considering China has dipped (and if China bounces) what might happen.

Thanks!
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
Presap,

Best trades are the ones in which the fundamentals and technicals are in synch. Just trading basis analysis can only be the domain of deep pockets, so we should always go by the charts. Add to it, our threshold for pain is limited, so entries have to be at levels where markets are at a turning point, so a look at the charts is daily TF while trading 5M is necessary in my view.....

Regards China, it is difficult to tell. Their numbers are opaque and cannot be trusted. But if there is recovery in China, it will get somehow reflected in the commodity charts.....

Nice one DSM. :thumb:

You had mentioned the possibility of the Iran impact in June and its played out that way.

Please mention your insights about how you think this will play out considering China has dipped (and if China bounces) what might happen.

Thanks!
 

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