Gold
- Thread starter praveen taneja
- Start date
Are Gold Bugs Sweating Bullets Over February?
By Eric McWhinnie
February 27, 2013
It was not exactly a lovely February for gold bugs. Between talks of a great rotation into risk-on assets, and confusing language from the Federal Reserve, the precious metal experienced heavy-selling pressure to reach new multi-month lows. However, gold investors may not be sweating the decline like some expect.
In late February, the price of gold dropped below $1,600 an ounce to its lowest level since July, and even trigged the headline-grabbing death cross status, a bearish technical term for when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. While multi-year high equity prices have been promoting riskier assets, the decline was aided by the latest Federal Open Market Committee statement creating fear that the central bank may end quantitative easing programs sooner than expected.
Headlines hit publications across the board touting the weakness in gold and questioning the 12-year bull market. Goldman Sachs, the bank that recommended clients sell Heinz shares before the announced buyout by Warren Buffett, added to the pessimism in gold by slashing its price targets. The bank now has a three-month target of $1,615 per ounce, down from $1,825. The six-month and 12-month targets were also cut to $1,600 and $1,550, down from $1,805 and $1,800, respectively.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/are-gold-bugs-sweating-bullets-over-february.html/
By Eric McWhinnie
February 27, 2013
It was not exactly a lovely February for gold bugs. Between talks of a great rotation into risk-on assets, and confusing language from the Federal Reserve, the precious metal experienced heavy-selling pressure to reach new multi-month lows. However, gold investors may not be sweating the decline like some expect.
In late February, the price of gold dropped below $1,600 an ounce to its lowest level since July, and even trigged the headline-grabbing death cross status, a bearish technical term for when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. While multi-year high equity prices have been promoting riskier assets, the decline was aided by the latest Federal Open Market Committee statement creating fear that the central bank may end quantitative easing programs sooner than expected.
Headlines hit publications across the board touting the weakness in gold and questioning the 12-year bull market. Goldman Sachs, the bank that recommended clients sell Heinz shares before the announced buyout by Warren Buffett, added to the pessimism in gold by slashing its price targets. The bank now has a three-month target of $1,615 per ounce, down from $1,825. The six-month and 12-month targets were also cut to $1,600 and $1,550, down from $1,805 and $1,800, respectively.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/are-gold-bugs-sweating-bullets-over-february.html/
As legendary commodities investor Jim Rogers warned in December, “Gold is having a correction— it’s been correcting for 15-16 months now— which is normal in my view, and it’s possible that the correction is going to continue for a while longer…gold on any kind of historic market basis is overdue for a nice correction
Question is correction due or not????
Question is correction due or not????
Gold’s death cross is no reason to feel grim
By J.J. Zhang
.
Technical price and momentum indicators are popular tools for many investors as a way to decide when to enter or exit positions. Recently a popular indicator has been making the rounds on most financial sites due to gold hitting the “death cross.” So what is a death cross?
The definition of a death cross can vary depending on who you ask but generally it refers to the 50-day moving average crossing under the 200-day moving average. A common condition added to this definition is that the 200-day moving average must also be on a downward trend.
Generally this is seen as a bearish sign and is supposed to indicate that the market has a negative outlook on the future of gold prices. Read “Gold’s so-called death cross is not its only problem.”
So with gold entering a death cross, you have to ask: how useful is this indicator? While many technicians do use other indicators in combination with the death cross to get a better feel of market direction, it’s still an interesting statistical exercise to look through historical data.
After all, how often do death crosses and their opposite, the golden crosses, occur? What is the typical price performance a week, a month, a quarter and a half year after? Do they actually predict longer term market deterioration?
The first question of death cross frequency is a relatively simple one to answer using historical data. Using gold spot price available from the World Gold Council at Gold.org, an analysis found the commodity metal has seen 37 total 50/200-day moving average crossovers (including last week) since 1979.
That works out to 19 death crosses and 18 golden crosses at roughly 1 crossover per year.
each death and golden cross occurrence along with the number of trading days each period and the percent change after one week, one month, three months, six months and until the crossover reverses (by definition, a golden cross always occurs after each death cross and vice versa).
For death crosses, the average length is 212 trading days while the median length is only 135, indicating a few occurrences’ lasted unusually long. Within the last 10 years, the average has only been 71 days, a significantly shorter length.
In fact, none have lasted six months or longer since 2000. If the pattern holds, the current death cross may only last 3 months
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/golds-death-cross-is-no-reason-to-feel-grim-2013-02-26
By J.J. Zhang
.
Technical price and momentum indicators are popular tools for many investors as a way to decide when to enter or exit positions. Recently a popular indicator has been making the rounds on most financial sites due to gold hitting the “death cross.” So what is a death cross?
The definition of a death cross can vary depending on who you ask but generally it refers to the 50-day moving average crossing under the 200-day moving average. A common condition added to this definition is that the 200-day moving average must also be on a downward trend.
Generally this is seen as a bearish sign and is supposed to indicate that the market has a negative outlook on the future of gold prices. Read “Gold’s so-called death cross is not its only problem.”
So with gold entering a death cross, you have to ask: how useful is this indicator? While many technicians do use other indicators in combination with the death cross to get a better feel of market direction, it’s still an interesting statistical exercise to look through historical data.
After all, how often do death crosses and their opposite, the golden crosses, occur? What is the typical price performance a week, a month, a quarter and a half year after? Do they actually predict longer term market deterioration?
The first question of death cross frequency is a relatively simple one to answer using historical data. Using gold spot price available from the World Gold Council at Gold.org, an analysis found the commodity metal has seen 37 total 50/200-day moving average crossovers (including last week) since 1979.
That works out to 19 death crosses and 18 golden crosses at roughly 1 crossover per year.
each death and golden cross occurrence along with the number of trading days each period and the percent change after one week, one month, three months, six months and until the crossover reverses (by definition, a golden cross always occurs after each death cross and vice versa).
For death crosses, the average length is 212 trading days while the median length is only 135, indicating a few occurrences’ lasted unusually long. Within the last 10 years, the average has only been 71 days, a significantly shorter length.
In fact, none have lasted six months or longer since 2000. If the pattern holds, the current death cross may only last 3 months
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/golds-death-cross-is-no-reason-to-feel-grim-2013-02-26
30.2 Yield Curve and Gold Updated
If the top part of this chart looks bullish to you, then the stock market and a sense that all is well in the financial system should not look bullish to you. The next crisis would be indicated by the long ‘bowl’ shown on the chart turning up hard. Although right now, it just continues to gently round upward, above a supportive moving average.
If the top part of this chart looks bullish to you, then the stock market and a sense that all is well in the financial system should not look bullish to you. The next crisis would be indicated by the long ‘bowl’ shown on the chart turning up hard. Although right now, it just continues to gently round upward, above a supportive moving average.
Half of the gold market is owned by Central Banks and half is privately owned. Central Banks account for approximately 500 tonnes gold purchases per year (figures are based on the past couple of years). The gold owned by private hands, is held by a relatively small number of very wealthy families (who mostly hold it for generations). The effect of the above situation on the gold market is that both Central Banks (who became net buyers in 2008 and who are not selling their gold) and the vast majority of privately held bullion is not for sale at any price. So all you’ve got is new mine supply to meet the upcoming [investment] demand. Imagine what happens if you get only a few percentage points move out of the $250 trillion paper market in an attempt to buy gold. Indeed, the only adjustable number in such a situation is the price of gold.
Ongoing currency destruction
As the driving forces of monetary debasement keep going, you will consequently see an unavoidable shift from the $ 250 trillion. That process has been taking place already for several years, but it’s not visible to most people and market participants because mainstream media is under-reporting the clear trend.
Here are some recent facts supporting that trend: Investment Company Institute (ICI) this week released its latest “Weekly Estimated Long-Term Mutual Fund Flows” that shows retail investors are accelerating redemptions from equity mutual funds. Since the U.S. Federal Reserve’s most recent QE pledge (QE3), outflows from equity mutual funds nearly doubled from the two weeks prior ($12.612 billion for the two weeks ending 9/26/12 versus $6.819 billion for the two weeks ending 9/12/12).
And third quarter equity mutual fund outflows of $19.431 billion were the highest of the year, surpassing August’s $19.195 billion outflow.
http://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-si...the-destruction-of-currency-and-rise-of-gold/
Ongoing currency destruction
As the driving forces of monetary debasement keep going, you will consequently see an unavoidable shift from the $ 250 trillion. That process has been taking place already for several years, but it’s not visible to most people and market participants because mainstream media is under-reporting the clear trend.
Here are some recent facts supporting that trend: Investment Company Institute (ICI) this week released its latest “Weekly Estimated Long-Term Mutual Fund Flows” that shows retail investors are accelerating redemptions from equity mutual funds. Since the U.S. Federal Reserve’s most recent QE pledge (QE3), outflows from equity mutual funds nearly doubled from the two weeks prior ($12.612 billion for the two weeks ending 9/26/12 versus $6.819 billion for the two weeks ending 9/12/12).
And third quarter equity mutual fund outflows of $19.431 billion were the highest of the year, surpassing August’s $19.195 billion outflow.
http://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-si...the-destruction-of-currency-and-rise-of-gold/
Plz cany anyone answer this question?? http://www.traderji.com/commodities/83203-mcx-lot-size-rs.html#post779794
The misguided perception that things are improving may induce some people to liquidate their gold holdings, but the prudent investor who is able to read between the lines, understands this current price drop does not alter the long-term picture and will simply continue to accumulate more gold and silver.
Gold Outlook Splits Traders Weighing Stimulus Gains: Commodities
By Nicholas Larkin - Mar 1, 2013
...Gold traders are divided on the outlook for prices, balancing central bank concern that more economic stimulus is needed against signs of recovering growth that spurred the longest run of monthly losses since 1997.
Fifteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week, while 14 were bearish and three were neutral. They were mostly negative the previous two weeks and evenly split the week before that. Bullion fell for a fifth straight month in February as investors sold the most metal ever from exchange-traded products, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Gold rose about 78 percent since the Federal Reserve began asset purchases in 2008.
Gold rose about 78 percent since the Federal Reserve began asset purchases in 2008. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
.Gold rose about 78 percent since the Federal Reserve began asset purchases in 2008. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke defended the $85 billion in monthly buying this week as a support for the economy and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled stimulus will continue. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Feb. 25 bullions cycle has probably turned as the U.S. economy gathers momentum. Hedge funds are the least bullish on gold since 2008 and world equities set a four-year high last month.
Confidence in a recovering U.S. economy as well as a strong global stock market has reduced the perceived need for gold, said Adrian Day, who manages about $170 million of assets as the president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. We see this as a good level to be buying. There is no expectation of serious tightening in any major economy anytime soon.
Gold Price
The metal fell 6.1 percent to $1,573.27 an ounce in London this year, after 12 straight annual gains, the best run in at least nine decades. Its up 1.1 percent from a seven-month low of $1,555.55 set Feb. 21. The Standard & Poors GSCI gauge of 24 commodities slid 0.5 percent this year and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 4.1 percent. Treasuries lost 0.4 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.
Investors sold 109.5 metric tons from ETPs last month, the most ever, according to Bloomberg data going back to 2003. While the 2,502.7 tons now held is the least in five months, its valued at $126.6 billion and is 4.9 percent below the Dec. 20 record. Billionaire investor George Soros cut his stake in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) by 55 percent in the fourth quarter as John Paulson, the largest investor in the biggest gold ETP, kept his holding unchanged, government filings showed last month.
Hedge Funds
Hedge funds cut their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, by 79 percent since October to 42,318 contracts in the week to Feb. 19, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. An unwind in the bull run has begun, Credit Suisse Group AG said in a Feb. 21 report. Goldman cut its three-month forecast to $1,615 from $1,825 and expects $1,550 in a years time. While gold should offer diversification, the gold rush is over, Societe Generale SA said yesterday.
U.S. purchases of new homes surged by the most in two decades in January and consumer confidence jumped last month, Feb. 26 data show. Chinas economic growth accelerated for the first time in two years in the fourth quarter. The International Monetary Fund predicts global expansion will climb to 3.5 percent this year from 3.2 percent in 2012, even as it sees a second year of contraction in the euro area.
Gold generally earns returns only through price gains and some investors buy it as a hedge against inflation and currency declines. Minutes released Feb. 20 of the Feds latest meeting showed some policy makers said the central bank should be ready to vary the pace of its monthly bond purchases. The bond buying poses little risk of asset-price bubbles or inflation, Bernanke said Feb. 26 in Washington.
Stimulus Measures
Draghi signaled in Munich two days ago that the ECB has no intention of tightening monetary policy anytime soon. Bank of England Deputy Governor Charles Bean said Feb. 27 that policy makers were ready to add more monetary stimulus. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has nominated a new central bank governor, raising the likelihood of further monetary stimulus this year.
Gold will still average a record $1,740 in the fourth quarter as quantitative easing weighs on the dollar and raises the outlook for faster inflation, according to BNP Paribas SA, which yesterday cut its 2013 outlook by 6.7 percent to $1,670. Inflation expectations measured by the break-even rate for five- year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities rose 11 percent this year and reached a four-month high on Feb. 6.
The metal is trading 18 percent below the record $1,921.15 set in September 2011 and this years drop took it below the 200-day moving average. Bullions 14-day relative strength index (MXWD) fell to 19.3 on Feb. 20, below the level of 30 that indicates to some analysts who study technical charts that a rebound may be imminent. That was the lowest since 1999, the year when gold fell to a 20-year low. The RSI was at 33.3 today.
Gold Oversold
Sentiment is the worst we have seen it in recent years and therefore is due a bounce, said Mark OByrne, the executive director of Dublin-based GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage that sells and stores bullion coins and bars. Gold is oversold on a host of benchmarks.
There are signs demand is improving. Physical buying from India, the biggest gold consumer, has been above-average lately, UBS AG said on Feb. 27. Average volumes this year on the Shanghai Gold Exchanges benchmark contract have been more than double last years levels, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Indian and Chinese demand will rise at least 11 percent this year, the London-based World Gold Council said Feb. 14.
The U.S. Mint sold 80,500 ounces of American Eagle gold coins in February, data on its website show. While thats less than the 150,000-ounce total in January, its 28 percent more than last years monthly average. Central banks added 534.6 tons to reserves last year, 17 percent more than in 2011, and will be strong buyers this year, the World Gold Council estimates
By Nicholas Larkin - Mar 1, 2013
...Gold traders are divided on the outlook for prices, balancing central bank concern that more economic stimulus is needed against signs of recovering growth that spurred the longest run of monthly losses since 1997.
Fifteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to gain next week, while 14 were bearish and three were neutral. They were mostly negative the previous two weeks and evenly split the week before that. Bullion fell for a fifth straight month in February as investors sold the most metal ever from exchange-traded products, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Gold rose about 78 percent since the Federal Reserve began asset purchases in 2008.
Gold rose about 78 percent since the Federal Reserve began asset purchases in 2008. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
.Gold rose about 78 percent since the Federal Reserve began asset purchases in 2008. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke defended the $85 billion in monthly buying this week as a support for the economy and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled stimulus will continue. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Feb. 25 bullions cycle has probably turned as the U.S. economy gathers momentum. Hedge funds are the least bullish on gold since 2008 and world equities set a four-year high last month.
Confidence in a recovering U.S. economy as well as a strong global stock market has reduced the perceived need for gold, said Adrian Day, who manages about $170 million of assets as the president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. We see this as a good level to be buying. There is no expectation of serious tightening in any major economy anytime soon.
Gold Price
The metal fell 6.1 percent to $1,573.27 an ounce in London this year, after 12 straight annual gains, the best run in at least nine decades. Its up 1.1 percent from a seven-month low of $1,555.55 set Feb. 21. The Standard & Poors GSCI gauge of 24 commodities slid 0.5 percent this year and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 4.1 percent. Treasuries lost 0.4 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.
Investors sold 109.5 metric tons from ETPs last month, the most ever, according to Bloomberg data going back to 2003. While the 2,502.7 tons now held is the least in five months, its valued at $126.6 billion and is 4.9 percent below the Dec. 20 record. Billionaire investor George Soros cut his stake in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) by 55 percent in the fourth quarter as John Paulson, the largest investor in the biggest gold ETP, kept his holding unchanged, government filings showed last month.
Hedge Funds
Hedge funds cut their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, by 79 percent since October to 42,318 contracts in the week to Feb. 19, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. An unwind in the bull run has begun, Credit Suisse Group AG said in a Feb. 21 report. Goldman cut its three-month forecast to $1,615 from $1,825 and expects $1,550 in a years time. While gold should offer diversification, the gold rush is over, Societe Generale SA said yesterday.
U.S. purchases of new homes surged by the most in two decades in January and consumer confidence jumped last month, Feb. 26 data show. Chinas economic growth accelerated for the first time in two years in the fourth quarter. The International Monetary Fund predicts global expansion will climb to 3.5 percent this year from 3.2 percent in 2012, even as it sees a second year of contraction in the euro area.
Gold generally earns returns only through price gains and some investors buy it as a hedge against inflation and currency declines. Minutes released Feb. 20 of the Feds latest meeting showed some policy makers said the central bank should be ready to vary the pace of its monthly bond purchases. The bond buying poses little risk of asset-price bubbles or inflation, Bernanke said Feb. 26 in Washington.
Stimulus Measures
Draghi signaled in Munich two days ago that the ECB has no intention of tightening monetary policy anytime soon. Bank of England Deputy Governor Charles Bean said Feb. 27 that policy makers were ready to add more monetary stimulus. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has nominated a new central bank governor, raising the likelihood of further monetary stimulus this year.
Gold will still average a record $1,740 in the fourth quarter as quantitative easing weighs on the dollar and raises the outlook for faster inflation, according to BNP Paribas SA, which yesterday cut its 2013 outlook by 6.7 percent to $1,670. Inflation expectations measured by the break-even rate for five- year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities rose 11 percent this year and reached a four-month high on Feb. 6.
The metal is trading 18 percent below the record $1,921.15 set in September 2011 and this years drop took it below the 200-day moving average. Bullions 14-day relative strength index (MXWD) fell to 19.3 on Feb. 20, below the level of 30 that indicates to some analysts who study technical charts that a rebound may be imminent. That was the lowest since 1999, the year when gold fell to a 20-year low. The RSI was at 33.3 today.
Gold Oversold
Sentiment is the worst we have seen it in recent years and therefore is due a bounce, said Mark OByrne, the executive director of Dublin-based GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage that sells and stores bullion coins and bars. Gold is oversold on a host of benchmarks.
There are signs demand is improving. Physical buying from India, the biggest gold consumer, has been above-average lately, UBS AG said on Feb. 27. Average volumes this year on the Shanghai Gold Exchanges benchmark contract have been more than double last years levels, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Indian and Chinese demand will rise at least 11 percent this year, the London-based World Gold Council said Feb. 14.
The U.S. Mint sold 80,500 ounces of American Eagle gold coins in February, data on its website show. While thats less than the 150,000-ounce total in January, its 28 percent more than last years monthly average. Central banks added 534.6 tons to reserves last year, 17 percent more than in 2011, and will be strong buyers this year, the World Gold Council estimates
| Thread starter | Similar threads | Forum | Replies | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O | Why do you trade GOLD? | Forex | 4 | |
| R | Can you share any Gold trading strategy? | General Trading & Investing Chat | 1 | |
| N | Investing in Gold | General Trading & Investing Chat | 4 | |
| R | Suggest a gold trading strategy | General Trading & Investing Chat | 0 | |
| A | Help - Need GOLDM24JANFUT Data From 1 to 5 Jan 2024 | Data Feeds | 1 |
Similar threads
-
-
Can you share any Gold trading strategy?
- Started by ReggieFx
- Replies: 1
-
-
-