Keep short selling Zinc till May 9th or go long?

Klewtar

Well-Known Member
#1
Hello,

Commodities trading is relatively new to me. It's my third day on the MCX although I have done some paper trading for the last couple of months.

I did notice that Zinc and Lead dropped in price on April 9th (I discovered today evening that the price drops in Zinc and Lead is/was due to the European Central Bank announcing on April 9th that it is raising its interest rates.) As my starting capital is Less than Rs 12,000, I focused on Aluminium, Zinc and Lead for trading since their minilots needed less margin to trade. Aluminium was more strong and I noticed today that while it did drop in price due the ECB news, it recovered within 4 days of the ECB interest rate news while Zinc and Lead continued to drop in price (Zinc seems to be recovering since the 29th.)

My last short was unfortunately at Rs 100.2 for Zincmini on May 29th and I let it continue overnight (I can afford some losses to get attuned to overnight/delivery commodity trading) on the 29th and today in the event that Zinc drops to Rs 95.

It seems to me at Zinc and Lead may start rising in price by May 9th (Zinc may have started to reverse it's price fall on April 29.)

Which metal (Zinc or Lead) may have a higher rate of change after May 9th which is when both their RSI reach or bound away from their over sold zone? Prices for Zinc seems more volatile/reactive than Lead although I could be mistaken.

I'm thinking of:
-squaring off my short sell on Zincmini (accepting the loss,) go long in Alumini till May 15th and then go long on Zincmini or Leadmini.
-Continue my short sell on Zincmini in the event it drops to Rs 95 risking further losses if Zincmini rebounds earlier than May 9th (I can afford a Zincmini price rice to about Rs 103 and Zinc mini closed at 102.1 today.) Go long on Zincmini or Leadmini on May 15th (or earlier) if/when their prices start rising.

What do ya more experienced and successful traders have to say/think?

While Zincmini is more volatile and more profitable when trades go in the correct direction, Leadmini may be consistent and profitable when it is time to go long? Leadmini does seem to be more profitable to trade than Alumini.
 
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#2
Hello,

Commodities trading is relatively new to me. It's my third day on the MCX although I have done some paper trading for the last couple of months.

I did notice that Zinc and Lead dropped in price on April 9th (I discovered today evening that the price drops in Zinc and Lead is/was due to the European Central Bank announcing on April 9th that it is raising its interest rates.) As my starting capital is Less than Rs 12,000, I focused on Aluminium, Zinc and Lead for trading since their minilots needed less margin to trade. Aluminium was more strong and I noticed today that while it did drop in price due the ECB news, it recovered within 4 days of the ECB interest rate news while Zinc and Lead continued to drop in price (Zinc seems to be recovering since the 29th.)

My last short was unfortunately at Rs 100.2 for Zincmini on May 29th and I let it continue overnight (I can afford some losses to get attuned to overnight/delivery commodity trading) on the 29th and today in the event that Zinc drops to Rs 95.

It seems to me at Zinc and Lead may start rising in price by May 9th (Zinc may have started to reverse it's price fall on April 29.)

Which metal (Zinc or Lead) may have a higher rate of change after May 9th which is when both their RSI reach or bound away from their over sold zone? Prices for Zinc seems more volatile/reactive than Lead although I could be mistaken.

I'm thinking of:
-squaring off my short sell on Zincmini (accepting the loss,) go long in Alumini till May 15th and then go long on Zincmini or Leadmini.
-Continue my short sell on Zincmini in the event it drops to Rs 95 risking further losses if Zincmini rebounds earlier than May 9th (I can afford a Zincmini price rice to about Rs 103 and Zinc mini closed at 102.1 today.) Go long on Zincmini or Leadmini on May 15th (or earlier) if/when their prices start rising.

What do ya more experienced and successful traders have to say/think?

While Zincmini is more volatile and more profitable when trades go in the correct direction, Leadmini may be consistent and profitable when it is time to go long? Leadmini does seem to be more profitable to trade than Alumini.
The Starving Trader has started looking at Zinc Mini due to superior volume, recently. He has some trade-able levels in the metals here: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?...thkey=CKadpckO

Click on the "Trade Setups" tab below the spreadsheet to be taken to the setups. Alternatively, you may view the details from the frame embedded in the site too.

Aluminium and Lead typically have lower volumes ont he MCX than Zinc, Nickel and others. Would recommend sticking to high volume metals if you're trading smaller time frames.

Hope this helps :)

The Starving Trader
 

Klewtar

Well-Known Member
#3
Zinc mini closed at 101.2 on Saturday and not 102.1

Yes, high volume metals do seem to have more gains as well as easing intra-day trading. The spread sheet link didn't seem to work. Maybe a Tinyurl link is more forum friendly???

The selection of metals (for me) is limited as of now due to a lower starting capital 10K-12K hence I'm limited to ZincMini, LeadMini and AluMini for the moment.
 
#4
Can we buy zinc @ 95 , 94 levels ? or will it slip further.
can you pls provide the price range of zinc. I couldnt get any historic charts to check prices.
I just opened a trading account. no charts :(
 

Klewtar

Well-Known Member
#5
Zinc reached 94.3 at 17:11:59 and based on its RSI, it may not slip further (I'm a new entrant and it's more of an observation.) There was news yesterday related to a not very favorable outlook on the US economic growth and that news may cause further slips. Yesterdays news certainly has sped the drop in Zinc prices.

I've noticed that 17:00 to 20:00 is a time frame when metals tend to have a rise in price (I'm a new entrant and it's more of an observation) especially when no reports or events take place that may lead to a change in price trends.
 
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the1

New Member
#6
Hi! All

I brough zinc @ 99.8 (May contract) and I am still holding it........ you can calculate the loss I am in right now.........

can anyone here guide and share there valuable comments.....

what should i do book loss or hold?????????

Quite frankly I get tempted to book loss but then it seems that the price might move up......

Thanks in advance....
 

Klewtar

Well-Known Member
#8
Since Friday evening, Zinc seems to be on the rebound (a dip in price may occur on Monday if further moves are made to control inflation.)

I'm not certain whether Aluminium is on the rebound or set to fall further, it hasn't recovered as strongly as Zinc.

How did everyone cope with the massive sell off in commodities?

As a new entrant, I discovered that I need to develop more excitement management skills to cope with financial trading in commodities. Too much profit too soon seems to be almost as dangerous as unfavorable price moves.

Note: I didn't make a profit in the sell off as I was on the wrong side with Aluminium. I was over excited making profits on a single lot (trading in ZincMini and AluMini) that I went long on AluMini on May 4th evening with 2 lots and let the trade go overnight (over excitement with previous wins, combined with inexperience, lead to under estimating the long term impact of the reports on unfavorable US economic data.)
 
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Klewtar

Well-Known Member
#10
Prices for Zinc seems to be recovering and by the end of the week, Zinc may recover back to Rs 100.

@tnandkumar: If ya bought Zinc at 93.55, ya ought to be in profit? If ya bought Zinc at 103, I think waiting may be worthwhile.