Chilli fundamentals

#1
Aug contract closed at 4106 Rs/qtl, open interest decreased by 1% over all Chili open interest is 12530 and volume decreased by 2%.

FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS & PRICE DRIVERS

At Guntur mandi, 40,000 bags (1bag = 45Kg) arrival is seen and the traded price remained steady between 3900 to 4300 Rs/qtl
Spot rates traded steadily, but futures witnessed some selling in the absence buying interest.
Stockiest and trades are holding back their stocks, as chilli prices continue to drift lower.
Export of Indian chillies has crossed 2 lakh tonnes in 2009-10 due to drop in Chinese production and may witness ample demand until the new Chinese crop comes to the market in October or November.
Madhya Pradesh, other major producer of Chilli after AP, started sowings in this fortnight. This sowing progress can be the major precursor for further price directions.
In Guntur, majority of the cold storages are still full with Chilli stocks. Trade sources report the stock position close to 1.15 crore bags (40Kg) across Andhra Pradesh with 40 lakh bags in Guntur alone.
Trade sources also report that the Bangladesh buyers/stockiest are also replete with stocks that they have emerged as major suppliers to Chinese markets.

SEP-DOWN Trend if brakes 4000 level and if touches 4300 may reach 4500
 

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