For what timeframe u are considering a long. Short term, medium term or long term.
As in my opinion short term is up but i have serious doubts about medium term or long term for only one reason that being up by 85 percent or so in current year risk to reward doesnt justify a medium/long term long at these levels. However if they do correct at some course of time by say 20 - 30 percent or so, i may be tempted to initiate a long term call at that time that too after taking in consideration the other factors at that point of time.
Actually what u are looking is one fundamental factor. However u must have seen times when market does not respond to a fundamental factor and tries to carry on on a pure momentam. The current rally as i see is not for the reason that world is getting out of trouble but for the reason that market realised that situation is not as bad as was discounted by the metal prices thats why a catch up to leverage that discount. Thats all i can see at the moment.
so current rally in my opinion is not on the basis of percepting better economies but balancing away from the overtly pessimistic perceptions.
Question is not clear. Are you talking about some short term buy or long term buy? Well base metals in last couple of months have already given a decent bull run..Copper was a good buy above 247, Aluminium above 80 and Zinc above 76...They have already given excellent returns so far...the trend is still strong however all of them are overbought and a healthy correction is due..you can take advantage of those dips to go long...
Well, i would pick copper if it happen's to come back into lower 280's for a medium term.
reason being, economies which were out of recession are taking advantage of the cheap metals when compare to last 3years, they are stockpiling. so the price will keep going up.
Current rally in basemetals (and equities as well ) are liquidity driven one. So fundas are not driving the market. It is better to avoid trading in base metals , unless strict stop loss in place.
