Stocks to buy in 2008 for BSE - Yatish
Posted 31st January 2008 at 05:25 PM by yatishjain
Adlabs Films
With a strong presence across the entertainment industry value chain of content production, distribution, and exhibition, Adlabs becomes the choicest pick.
Domestic consumption and leisure spends will remain buoyant as disposable incomes rise across the country fuelling growth at Adlabs.
Adlabs produces and distributes films, and is a dominant player in the multiplex segment. It has also acquired 51 per cent stake in television content producer Synergy Communications, the maker of Jhalak Dikhhla Jaa and Kaun Banega Crorepati.
In the FM radio business, its subsidiary, which runs Big FM has 44 FM licenses across India. This could also become a value unlocking opportunity going forward.
Over the past three years, Adlabs has impeccably delivered a top line growth of over 100 per cent y-o-y, along with high profitability. In the September 2007 quarter, it raked in a whopping 69 per cent operating profit margin.
But going by the past numbers, operating margins have remained in excess of 50 per cent consistently, with net profit margins at over 22 per cent. The stock has appreciated three-fold since January 2007 and should do well.
HDFC
HDFC is an ideal play on the gamut of financial services. Besides market dominance in housing finance, it provides huge potential for value unlocking from its investment in banking, insurance and mutual fund subsidiaries.
The proposed UTI Mutual Fund IPO, stake sale by Reliance Capital in its mutual fund entity and the probability of listing of insurance companies though in the long term, should provide triggers. Moreover, there is a possibility of a merger with HDFC Bank.
Its core business--housing finance will continue to do well. Its loan book is expected to witness a CAGR of 25 per cent over the next two years. Its net interest margins are expected to remain stable at around 3 per cent.
And, HDFC is known for its asset quality. HDFC's stock trades at about 5 times FY09 estimated book value (adjusted for the value of its subsidiaries, which is about 30 per cent of HDFC's market capitalisation), and is a worthy pick.
India Infoline
India Infoline is another company representing financial services, except the lending business.
Its stock price has grown more than fourfold in the last one year amid many positive triggers like capital raising for expansions, tie-up with strategic investors for investments in subsidiaries and restructuring of its various businesses.
Besides equity broking, it has expanded its product basket to include institutional equities broking, commodities broking, margin finance, investment banking and, distribution of life insurance, mutual fund and loans products.
It is investing towards building a strong distribution network (596 branches in 345 cities) and customer base (5 lakh clients) for its various services. Accordingly, the share of its traditional broking business of about 56 per cent in FY07 revenues is expected to come down over the years.
The stock trades at 51 times and 44 times estimated earnings for FY08 and FY09, respectively. While it looks cheaper than Edelweiss, in terms of market capitalisation to revenues, it trades at a higher P/E than Indiabulls.However, it has the most de-risked business model compared to other players. Given India Infoline's aggressive growth strategy, the stock is ideal for long term investors.
Larsen & Toubro
Reinventing itself and successfully developing new businesses are among L&T's key strengths. That, along with the domestic infrastructure and global hydrocarbon investments, is responsible for the rising revenues and order book. It is now targeting a turnover of Rs 30,000 crore (Rs 300 billion) by FY10 as compared with Rs 18,363 crore (Rs 183.63 billion) in FY07.
Going forward, there is more business to come, as the government has estimated an infrastructure investment of $500 billion during the Eleventh Five Year Plan. Besides, a lot of money will also be spent by domestic players in the metal, oil and gas, power and other industries.
Little wonder, L&T's order book has been rising. As of September 2007, the engineering and construction division had an order book of Rs 42,000 crore (Rs 420 billion).
Going forward, L&T is also focusing on the overseas markets and has targeted exports to increase to 25 per cent of 2010 sales. It is entering shipbuilding, railway locomotives, power generation and power equipment as well.
While all these investments in different businesses will help sustain future growth, the medium term continues to be robust. Some of it is already rubbing off positively on the share price. Although the stock seems richly valued, it can fetch good returns.
ONGC
Oil exploration companies are set to benefit from the current high oil prices and firm outlook. India's largest oil exploration company, ONGC is the best bet in this space. ONGC with interest in 85 domestic blocks including 52 offshore fields, has made 28 discoveries in the past two years, of which, 14 were made in FY08 itself.
Further, its 100 per cent subsidiary, ONGC Videsh has stakes in 26 blocks across 15 countries and is expected to be the key growth driver with its share in ONGC's consolidated revenues and profits expected to rise to 20 per cent (14 per cent now) and 14 per cent (9 per cent now), respectively.
ONGC's substantial interests in MRPL, Petronet LNG
GAIL and Indian Oil Corporation are the topping. Moreover, the IPO of Oil India in the next few months could provide further triggers.
What also makes ONGC attractive is that it is the cheapest among its Asian peers trading at 10.1 times estimated FY09 earnings and enterprise value per barrel oil equivalent of about 7.5 times for FY09.
Going ahead, exploration successes especially in the KG basin and favourable announcement on various issues like sharing of subsidy burden, cess and deregulation in gas prices will be big positives.
Reliance Communications
Reliance Communications (RCOM) has a mobile telephony market share of 18 per cent and subscriber base of 38 million, which is rising by a million every month. And this should continue to rise as RCOM penetrates into smaller towns.
What's more interesting is that despite concerns over declining, operating margins have improved to 42.2 per cent in Q2 FY08, thanks to the benefits of larger scale.
This is expected to improve further if RCOM gets the go-ahead to operate an additional 15 GSM circles as 65 per cent of passive infrastructure such as telecom towers, is common to both GSM and CDMA technologies and the investments in its existing networks will be incremental.
Additionally, it is the value unlocking in its subsidiaries that are likely to provide further triggers.
In 2008, RCOM is likely to announce a stake sale and subsequently list its tower subsidiary, Reliance Telecom Infrastructure, list its submarine cable subsidiary, FLAG Telecom, hive off of its SEZ and BPO businesses and the launch IPTV and DTH services by the first quarter of 2008.
Analysts estimate that a conservative sum-of-parts valuation based on FY09 numbers for RCOM comes to Rs 850-Rs 900 per share, which indicates an appreciation of 17-24 per cent from current levels.
Reliance Industries
In 2008, Reliance Industries' (RIL) exploration and production (E&P) division, which accounts for 50 per cent of its sum-of-parts valuation, will start selling gas from the KG Basin. The only ambiguous aspect here seems to be the pricing of gas and settlement with the ADA group and
NTPC.
Within a few months, Reliance Petroleum will also start operations, all of which should lead to a jump in RIL's profits.
Also, the bids for NELP VII will be awarded by July 2008. While further wins will add to reserves, new discoveries at existing reserves should further add to valuations and the possible de-merger of RIL's E&P division would unlock value.
While the company is yet to prove its mettle in its retail and SEZ initiatives, given its track record managing mammoth projects, one can hope to see positive results here as well.
Notably, analysts maintain their bullish outlook on the core businesses. Refining margins for RIL, already the best among global players, should remain firm until FY11, while petrochemical margins are expected to be stable with good growth in volumes. At a P/E of under 12 times FY09 estimated core earnings, RIL is a worthy investment.
State Bank of India
SBI's move to merge State Bank of Saurashtra with itself has the potential to trigger the re-rating of public sector banking stocks by pushing the much needed consolidation process.
To further expedite consolidation, the boards of SBI and its other six associate banks are meeting in January to consider merger. Should that happen, SBI's standalone balance sheet size will grow 1.5 times to Rs 8.20 lakh crore (Rs 8.20 trillion), almost double the size of ICICI Bank's.
Also, its branch network will jump 50 per cent to 14,400 branches. But, the improvement in valuations (re-rating) should get a boost when the merged entity is able to rationalise costs and extract benefits from the merger.
SBI will raise Rs 17,000 crore (Rs 170 billion) through a rights issue that should provide fuel for future growth. In a competitive Indian banking business, it is important for banks to achieve size and scale to be globally competitive.
And for investors, it is more important to find such banks at reasonable valuations. SBI meets both these criteria. SBI's stock trades at 2.2 times and 2 times its estimated consolidated book value for FY08 and FY09, respectively.
Further, SBI has investments in mutual fund and life insurance subsidiaries, which make valuations more compelling.
With a strong presence across the entertainment industry value chain of content production, distribution, and exhibition, Adlabs becomes the choicest pick.
Domestic consumption and leisure spends will remain buoyant as disposable incomes rise across the country fuelling growth at Adlabs.
Adlabs produces and distributes films, and is a dominant player in the multiplex segment. It has also acquired 51 per cent stake in television content producer Synergy Communications, the maker of Jhalak Dikhhla Jaa and Kaun Banega Crorepati.
In the FM radio business, its subsidiary, which runs Big FM has 44 FM licenses across India. This could also become a value unlocking opportunity going forward.
Over the past three years, Adlabs has impeccably delivered a top line growth of over 100 per cent y-o-y, along with high profitability. In the September 2007 quarter, it raked in a whopping 69 per cent operating profit margin.
But going by the past numbers, operating margins have remained in excess of 50 per cent consistently, with net profit margins at over 22 per cent. The stock has appreciated three-fold since January 2007 and should do well.
HDFC
HDFC is an ideal play on the gamut of financial services. Besides market dominance in housing finance, it provides huge potential for value unlocking from its investment in banking, insurance and mutual fund subsidiaries.
The proposed UTI Mutual Fund IPO, stake sale by Reliance Capital in its mutual fund entity and the probability of listing of insurance companies though in the long term, should provide triggers. Moreover, there is a possibility of a merger with HDFC Bank.
Its core business--housing finance will continue to do well. Its loan book is expected to witness a CAGR of 25 per cent over the next two years. Its net interest margins are expected to remain stable at around 3 per cent.
And, HDFC is known for its asset quality. HDFC's stock trades at about 5 times FY09 estimated book value (adjusted for the value of its subsidiaries, which is about 30 per cent of HDFC's market capitalisation), and is a worthy pick.
India Infoline
India Infoline is another company representing financial services, except the lending business.
Its stock price has grown more than fourfold in the last one year amid many positive triggers like capital raising for expansions, tie-up with strategic investors for investments in subsidiaries and restructuring of its various businesses.
Besides equity broking, it has expanded its product basket to include institutional equities broking, commodities broking, margin finance, investment banking and, distribution of life insurance, mutual fund and loans products.
It is investing towards building a strong distribution network (596 branches in 345 cities) and customer base (5 lakh clients) for its various services. Accordingly, the share of its traditional broking business of about 56 per cent in FY07 revenues is expected to come down over the years.
The stock trades at 51 times and 44 times estimated earnings for FY08 and FY09, respectively. While it looks cheaper than Edelweiss, in terms of market capitalisation to revenues, it trades at a higher P/E than Indiabulls.However, it has the most de-risked business model compared to other players. Given India Infoline's aggressive growth strategy, the stock is ideal for long term investors.
Larsen & Toubro
Reinventing itself and successfully developing new businesses are among L&T's key strengths. That, along with the domestic infrastructure and global hydrocarbon investments, is responsible for the rising revenues and order book. It is now targeting a turnover of Rs 30,000 crore (Rs 300 billion) by FY10 as compared with Rs 18,363 crore (Rs 183.63 billion) in FY07.
Going forward, there is more business to come, as the government has estimated an infrastructure investment of $500 billion during the Eleventh Five Year Plan. Besides, a lot of money will also be spent by domestic players in the metal, oil and gas, power and other industries.
Little wonder, L&T's order book has been rising. As of September 2007, the engineering and construction division had an order book of Rs 42,000 crore (Rs 420 billion).
Going forward, L&T is also focusing on the overseas markets and has targeted exports to increase to 25 per cent of 2010 sales. It is entering shipbuilding, railway locomotives, power generation and power equipment as well.
While all these investments in different businesses will help sustain future growth, the medium term continues to be robust. Some of it is already rubbing off positively on the share price. Although the stock seems richly valued, it can fetch good returns.
ONGC
Oil exploration companies are set to benefit from the current high oil prices and firm outlook. India's largest oil exploration company, ONGC is the best bet in this space. ONGC with interest in 85 domestic blocks including 52 offshore fields, has made 28 discoveries in the past two years, of which, 14 were made in FY08 itself.
Further, its 100 per cent subsidiary, ONGC Videsh has stakes in 26 blocks across 15 countries and is expected to be the key growth driver with its share in ONGC's consolidated revenues and profits expected to rise to 20 per cent (14 per cent now) and 14 per cent (9 per cent now), respectively.
ONGC's substantial interests in MRPL, Petronet LNG
GAIL and Indian Oil Corporation are the topping. Moreover, the IPO of Oil India in the next few months could provide further triggers.
What also makes ONGC attractive is that it is the cheapest among its Asian peers trading at 10.1 times estimated FY09 earnings and enterprise value per barrel oil equivalent of about 7.5 times for FY09.
Going ahead, exploration successes especially in the KG basin and favourable announcement on various issues like sharing of subsidy burden, cess and deregulation in gas prices will be big positives.
Reliance Communications
Reliance Communications (RCOM) has a mobile telephony market share of 18 per cent and subscriber base of 38 million, which is rising by a million every month. And this should continue to rise as RCOM penetrates into smaller towns.
What's more interesting is that despite concerns over declining, operating margins have improved to 42.2 per cent in Q2 FY08, thanks to the benefits of larger scale.
This is expected to improve further if RCOM gets the go-ahead to operate an additional 15 GSM circles as 65 per cent of passive infrastructure such as telecom towers, is common to both GSM and CDMA technologies and the investments in its existing networks will be incremental.
Additionally, it is the value unlocking in its subsidiaries that are likely to provide further triggers.
In 2008, RCOM is likely to announce a stake sale and subsequently list its tower subsidiary, Reliance Telecom Infrastructure, list its submarine cable subsidiary, FLAG Telecom, hive off of its SEZ and BPO businesses and the launch IPTV and DTH services by the first quarter of 2008.
Analysts estimate that a conservative sum-of-parts valuation based on FY09 numbers for RCOM comes to Rs 850-Rs 900 per share, which indicates an appreciation of 17-24 per cent from current levels.
Reliance Industries
In 2008, Reliance Industries' (RIL) exploration and production (E&P) division, which accounts for 50 per cent of its sum-of-parts valuation, will start selling gas from the KG Basin. The only ambiguous aspect here seems to be the pricing of gas and settlement with the ADA group and
NTPC.
Within a few months, Reliance Petroleum will also start operations, all of which should lead to a jump in RIL's profits.
Also, the bids for NELP VII will be awarded by July 2008. While further wins will add to reserves, new discoveries at existing reserves should further add to valuations and the possible de-merger of RIL's E&P division would unlock value.
While the company is yet to prove its mettle in its retail and SEZ initiatives, given its track record managing mammoth projects, one can hope to see positive results here as well.
Notably, analysts maintain their bullish outlook on the core businesses. Refining margins for RIL, already the best among global players, should remain firm until FY11, while petrochemical margins are expected to be stable with good growth in volumes. At a P/E of under 12 times FY09 estimated core earnings, RIL is a worthy investment.
State Bank of India
SBI's move to merge State Bank of Saurashtra with itself has the potential to trigger the re-rating of public sector banking stocks by pushing the much needed consolidation process.
To further expedite consolidation, the boards of SBI and its other six associate banks are meeting in January to consider merger. Should that happen, SBI's standalone balance sheet size will grow 1.5 times to Rs 8.20 lakh crore (Rs 8.20 trillion), almost double the size of ICICI Bank's.
Also, its branch network will jump 50 per cent to 14,400 branches. But, the improvement in valuations (re-rating) should get a boost when the merged entity is able to rationalise costs and extract benefits from the merger.
SBI will raise Rs 17,000 crore (Rs 170 billion) through a rights issue that should provide fuel for future growth. In a competitive Indian banking business, it is important for banks to achieve size and scale to be globally competitive.
And for investors, it is more important to find such banks at reasonable valuations. SBI meets both these criteria. SBI's stock trades at 2.2 times and 2 times its estimated consolidated book value for FY08 and FY09, respectively.
Further, SBI has investments in mutual fund and life insurance subsidiaries, which make valuations more compelling.
Total Comments 0
Comments
Recent Blog Entries by yatishjain
- Stocks to buy in 2008 for BSE - Yatish (31st January 2008)
