Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove reliably?

Bewinner

Well-Known Member
#51
Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

Hi Bewinner

If market starts to move up, IV of the puts will come down. And that is what we want when we sell options.

All the best and good trading / DanPickUp


http://www.optionsplaybook.com/
http://www.investopedia.com

H Dan..

Thanks for this explaining to me...Very well explained and in a very lucid language...

Just a question..would it be a PE u want to sell..right?
 

MANISH_DAMANI

Well-Known Member
#52
Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

Nice explanation Dan. Now expecting some lights on option greeks practical use with strategies. Definition cane be found anywhere but there use like best ratio of greeks to be considered for direction before decision etc.
 

DanPickUp

Well-Known Member
#53
Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

@Bewinner.

In that example you will sell puts with high IV, as we except a drop in IV on the put side. As told: Such events not happen to many times in a year, but if they occur you can take the trade.

@MD

The option greeks have been explain from different kind of views in my thread. I even gave answers to very complicated questions about them. So posting more on that subject is of no interest for me, as it is also very time consuming to write such specific posts. Hope you understand that. If you want to go deeper into the subject by your self, read at least the book I have mentioned a few days back or go in dept through my thread, as there is a lot about the option greeks written. So you can spend your time to the subject as much as you have. Thanks for your understanding and the respect to my time. :)

Good trading / DanPickUp
 
#54
Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

From trading perspective every indicator or system which we can think of or use is dependent on Price. So basically price is the KING. Price moves first and indicators follow it. This reflects that a trader who has got a good hold of Price Action will surely have an edge in matter of timing as compared to those who are relying heavily on lagging indicators.

Price moves in ranges in search of Fair Value . Buyers and Sellers settle their trades on a value which in their perception is FAIR. The question of who is right depends on what Market actually decides. This price action in trading ranges tend to form Support & Resistances. Support for the Buyers for a Fair Value and Resistances for the sellers for a Fair Value.

This Price Action brings in the use of PIVOTS as we all know. Pivot Point and Support & Resistances are very powerful areas of dominance of one group over the other. In addition to these levels other important levels are Yesterday High/Low and 2/3 Day High/Low. For Intraday Traders these levels can be really like light houses. In an ongoing uptrend price will normally won't break S1 level and in a downtrend price will normally won't break R1. When these levels are challenged in the trend then something fishy is happening to make notice of. In general we can say that perception of Fair Value may be changing.

Swing traders watch carefully that with every passing day in an uptrending market a move up by the market takes the Pivot Points and Supports/Resistances higher and in a down trending market a move down by the market will take these levels down. Comparing today's Pivot level to previous Day's Pivot level can surely help in determining that we are still in an uptrend or downtrend. When the trend starts to cool down then the trading range contracts due to Price reaching an extreme [SWING HIGH or SWING LOW] as perceived by market players then previous 1 to 3 day's pivot levels and today's pivot levels start coming very close and this is where consolidation or reversal [including corrective pullback] is expected.

Price will normally not reverse immediately from a level and would try to punch S/R [according to the trend] levels again as the bulls and bears still pursue their fight as was going on in the trend but now this will happen with lower volumes and price staying for very short time below/above these S/R levels, this is where an impending move starts developing. Here strong S/R levels of higher Time Frame also come into play. Like in Swing Trading together with Daily Pivots, Weekly & Monthly pivots play an important role.

Break of these important levels can either help the price to move in the direction of the trend before this contracting range [consolidation] or entering into a Pullback/new trend [reversal],opposite to the previous one. Price Action with Volume analysis together in conjunction to Pivot Points , S/R levels and Yesterday/2D/3D High/Low can help in remaining in the trade for a longer time to let the profits run and also deciding about the Stop Levels at major S/R levels.

Whenever I get a new AFL about some very glamorous looking system , I test it in comparison to this price action strategy and till date I have not found anything which can claim to be better than the above understanding.
 

amibrokerfans

Well-Known Member
#55
Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

its about 5 years now i am still trying to catch the turning point before it actually take place. "Price moves first and indicators follow it"- so true, BUT there are few uncanny non-repaint indicators, which can predict the reversal turn earlier than price. yes it can! given you all a metastock formula (may be known to someone or may not) which show you what i am talking about.

Sqrt(((BuyP()/SellP())/RSI(2))) > Ref(((BuyP()/SellP())/RSI(2)),-1)

..after lots of searching, researching, testing, collecting, copying, creating, re-creating, now i get these signals below, which give me little peace atleast.
but still long way to go...;)
below signals are on eod stock charts.

signal for 03.06.2013




signal for 04.06.2013



signal for 05.06.2013





those pictures are only for educational purpose.
 
#56
Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

its about 5 years now i am still trying to catch the turning point before it actually take place. "Price moves first and indicators follow it"- so true, BUT there are few uncanny non-repaint indicators, which can predict the reversal turn earlier than price. yes it can! given you all a metastock formula (may be known to someone or may not) which show you what i am talking about.

Sqrt(((BuyP()/SellP())/RSI(2))) > Ref(((BuyP()/SellP())/RSI(2)),-1)

..after lots of searching, researching, testing, collecting, copying, creating, re-creating, now i get these signals below, which give me little peace atleast.
but still long way to go...;)
below signals are on eod stock charts.
Hi amibrokerfans,

In some arrows we can see numeral "2" written beneath them and in some cases numeral "1" written. Can you please tell what does this signify ? Also in some cases the arrow is pointing in upward direction but the move is to the downside so is it an incorrect signal at times ?

Thanks.
 

amibrokerfans

Well-Known Member
#57
Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

thanks for the query
though its my private setting , but as i posted those pictures, think it deserve some answers.

actually i have total 5 non-lag non-repaint indicators to spot the reversal point.

1. Sqrt(((BuyP()/SellP())/RSI(2))) > Ref(((BuyP()/SellP())/RSI(2)),-1)
2. candlestick pattern
3. market cycle indicators
4. a commercial trend indicator
5. a non-lag moving avg indicator

combining these 5 logic i created 2 type of signal, those are marked as '1' and '2'.

and yes there are few false signals ofcourse. so far it created about 7/10 winning rate(still working on where to exit). though i have another weapon which is volume, still didnot put hand on it. may be it will be the final touch of my journey.

PS: bytheway i am a hardcore intraday trader. after getting the signal on eod chart i put the intra-chart of that stock with some supertrend/moving avg kind of indicator to trade with, and untill i get a exit signal on eod i continue to trade with that stock.
 
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Bewinner

Well-Known Member
#58
Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

Amibrokerfans...

Nice to see u in the forum again. I think u have developed it in Metastock. So nothing for Amibroker people?
 

amibrokerfans

Well-Known Member
#59
Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

hi bewinner
thanks. but its not complete yet, untill i feel its great, i will not publish it. its more than 5 years now i am trying to make it accurate, but its not "very accurate" till now.

about amibroker vs metastock vs metatrader, its all about language, which is not a big deal.
 

Bewinner

Well-Known Member
#60
Re: Which combination of indicators helps detect an impnding upmove or downmove relia

hi bewinner
thanks. but its not complete yet, untill i feel its great, i will not publish it. its more than 5 years now i am trying to make it accurate, but its not "very accurate" till now.

about amibroker vs metastock vs metatrader, its all about language, which is not a big deal.
I know amibrokerfans..language is not a problem to u, but I asked u because I only have amibroker....that's why asked whether u have done it in metastock or ami?
 

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