How to determine stock trend(cycle)?

#1
Actually moving averages are one way of detection stock situation.
But what are the periods of ma?

I want to determine stock situation?
I mean i want to know if stock is trending stock,sideway stock,smooth stock, or choppy stock at the moment.

How can i determine stock cycle? What are the techniques?
 
#2
the simplest answer i can give is, just plot only 34 ema high and 34 ema low on a price chart and observe the action of price on it. you will learn a lot in 2-3 days. this is called modified raghee wave.
 

rinku4142

Active Member
#3
in insert menu there is a cycle button tool it Draws time cycles. To use time cycles tool, click on the cycles drawing tool button in the toolbar then click at the starting point of the cycle and drag to the end of the cycle. These two control points control the interval between the cycle lines. When you release the mouse button you will get a series of parallel lines with equal interval in between them
 
#4
the simplest answer i can give is, just plot only 34 ema high and 34 ema low on a price chart and observe the action of price on it. you will learn a lot in 2-3 days. this is called modified raghee wave.
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What is 34 ema low and 34 ema high ? As far as I know, 34 days EMA that's it. What is high and low in Exponential moving average? Thanks.
 

singhboy

Active Member
#5
he meant moving avgs of days high price and days low prices. Anyway draw 20 day simple moving avg, n 50 day sma. Abv 50 sma medium term trend is considered up, 20 sma for short term. Also use indicator adx, wen positive directional index cross negative directional index up, trend changes, and if prices cross abv 20 day sma with it, then u r sure abt uptrend. Opposite with downtrend. Besides u need sum general insight abt market, and also use trendlines
 
#6
he meant moving avgs of days high price and days low prices. Anyway draw 20 day simple moving avg, n 50 day sma. Abv 50 sma medium term trend is considered up, 20 sma for short term. Also use indicator adx, wen positive directional index cross negative directional index up, trend changes, and if prices cross abv 20 day sma with it, then u r sure abt uptrend. Opposite with downtrend. Besides u need sum general insight abt market, and also use trendlines
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Thanks, my friend.
 
#7
Using Moving avareges and trendlines is most popular . But MA are very lagly.
Is there any other methods to detect cycles of stocks.
What about Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA)?
I found ehler cycels afl but i am not sure if they are the same as implementation of mesa at metastock.
If someone use this indicator i want to know how to use mesa.
 

SwingKing

Well-Known Member
#8
Using Moving avareges and trendlines is most popular . But MA are very lagly.
Is there any other methods to detect cycles of stocks.
What about Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA)?
I found ehler cycels afl but i am not sure if they are the same as implementation of mesa at metastock.
If someone use this indicator i want to know how to use mesa.
I agree that moving averages are lagging indicators. But there is a reason why Martin Pring, Steve Nison, Robert Miner, Charles Kirkpatrick and many more pay 'extensive' attention to use moving averages as trend bearing indicators. The reason is simple: Moving averages when used for short term perspective can be deceptive, but for longer term (200 Day, 150 and 100 day) they are the most reliable indicators. Imagine the kind of force required to turn around the major averages. Most of the time, when that's going to happen, you already know in advance (through reversals) that the trend is going to change. Thats the primary reason we couple Short term and Long term averages.

As far as I am concerned, I keep my analysis simple. I use EMA's effectively in trade and couple it with reversal indicators.
 

SwingKing

Well-Known Member
#9
Actually moving averages are one way of detection stock situation.
But what are the periods of ma?

I want to determine stock situation?
I mean i want to know if stock is trending stock,sideway stock,smooth stock, or choppy stock at the moment.

How can i determine stock cycle? What are the techniques?
Suggestions for Moving Average Periods

Day - 22 day EMA and 50 day EMA (For 4-6 weeks position)
Day - 50 day EMA and 250 day EMA (Long term positions)

Intraday - 60 Min Chart - 5 period EMA for signal and 30 period for trend

Monthly - 12 EMA Period for trend
 
#10
hmm So i can use ema if i think to go minimum a month.
But what i see stocks moves up 1 week then nothing. If i use lagging ema i will pass nearly all moves. I need something faster.
I want to go short. lets say 1 week. i want to catch big moves. When i finished with a stock then i want to catch other big move from other stock.

Everything happening in a week not in a month or months.
So what is the feistiest way to decide if stock is good to buy for a short time(week) ?.
 

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