Tom de mark sequential monitor for nifty50 stocks

Is below mentioned correct.
1st set up true low and true high was 8020.8 and 8461.05 respectively(1st setup extended to 17 bars).Range 440.15 pts.
2nd setup true low was 8480.95 and true high was 8821.4(2nd setup extended to 12bars).Range 340.45
2nd setup is less than 1st setup,hence 1st setup stands.

Your interpretation is correct, however double check your numbers. I see them as below (Nifty spot chart).

Thanks Vivek. Mistakenly took the high of sell setup bar 1 instead of the low.
2nd setup true low 8398.5 true high 8821.4 .Range 423 odd.

Trading setup bar 9vs6 qualifier
Reposting:
http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/23286-thomas-demark-sequential-system-48.html#post743039

While on this, want to share a very important tool called Set up Qualifier. In case of buy set up, the low of 9th set up day should be less than the low of 6th set up day. This relationship is normally there but in some cases it is not satisfied ( but it does not reduce the importance of set up in any way) and the qualifier says that if this relationship is not there, then in next 3 bars from the 9th bar, the market will break the low of the 6 th set up bar. Just see that in this case, the low of 9th set up bar is NOT lower than low of 6th set up bar and the qualifier becomes operational. Just see that in next 3 rd bar the market broke the low of the 6th set up bar. This works great even on smaller timeframes such as 3/5 or 15/60 min also and I have traded this setup qualifier even in intraday. It has a success rate of 80-85 %
Smart_trade

Reposting




In the first chart, we have seen that the move repeatedly failed at TDST. The set up marked in the first chart , the qualifier has failed because, the qualifier says that within next 3 bars ( after 9th set up bar) the high of the 6th set up bar should have been taken out. The qualifier is active only till next 3 bars and though after many bars in between we see that the 6th bar high was takenout and the upmove again failed at TDST. But these many bars are not allowed, so it is clearly a failure of set up qualifier.This pattern is not a "wait and watch" pattern, it is "now or never" kind of pattern.

Now the question is if the set up qualifier fails, can we save ourselves from getting trapped in the false trade ? Many false trades could be avoided as under :

1) In case of sell set up,if the 9th bar high is not above the 6th bar high, then in next 3 bars , the market takes out the high of the 6th bar. I have traded this pattern in daily/60 min/30min and even 5 or 3 min charts. I have found that if the set us qualifier has to fail,particularly in daily bars, the market after 9th day, will gap down and will never recover.This is what happened in your first chart failure.

2) We have to wait for the market to show that it is gathering strength to take out high of 6th bar, one way is to wait till the high of 9th bar (or the subsequent bar after 9th) is taken out, and then take position.

3) If the set up is in larger timeframe of daily/60 min, we let the market take out the pivot high in 15 min charts before we take a long position. In case of 5 min bars , wait till the high of the 9th bar is taken out...this will indicate that the strength is re-surfacing.

The above is for avoiding getting trapped in false trades....but we cannot avoid all 100 % false trades. But I have found that this pattern has a high success rate. Inspite of all the precautions, some trades will fail and we just say " this pattern will always have a few failures....and this is one of them " and move on....

Hope the above discussion helps in trading this pattern.

Smart_trade

Dilemma after entry/late entry explained straight:

Reposting:

Questions for ST/Ritesh and others interested:

ST: We recently had the code call out tops in Axis Bank and Bajaj Auto. This is within the last 2 weeks and the price is still near the top so nothing has changed with respect to RR. I wonder if the passage of 2 weeks (but no opposite setup yet) invalidates this? Should we be able to short these even now?

** To be correct, Axis bank is available at a price better than what Sequential called out, and Bajaj auto is available at a price worse than what Sequential called out - but I see this as minor deltas.

SJD,

A sell signal is valid till the market proves it wrong. Normally after a sell signal, market starts sinking but I have also seen the market in distribution mode even for 4-5 weeks and then cracking. Same holds good for buy signals.

A sell signal not working out quickly could mean one of the following :

1) Smart money is distributing their stock and that distribution is still not over.

OR 2) The supply/demand equation underneath the market is changing and we may get a fresh upmove thereby hitting the stops.

I would not assume which one is playing out, so take the short trade ( may be on smaller qty) and let the market make the final decision of which way it wants to go. If the short trade works out, great....if the stops are hit , still great as we now know that the market is going to go much higher so there is money to be made on long side , both are win win situations for a trader.

Smart_trade

Reposting:

DeMark sequential is a long term reversal method. 100-200 points up/down has no meaning as after a buy/sell signal we look for 2-3 weeks of trend in reverse direction.It is very difficult to take a trade on DeMark sequential and sit for all up/down moves. As long as stops are not hit, the trade is going on. So market may go up, go near the high, even exceed the highs...but if stops are not hit, we stay in the trade.Sequential trade should normally give us 350-500 Nifty points if it works.

Sequential is not a never fail method...it can and it does fail. When sequential stoploss is hit, market accelerates in that direction .So still sell trade is very much valid....it will be valid even if NF goes to 6375 or 6400 also. Sequential stoploss is normally 100-150 points away...it is not a scalping, daytrading or even swing trade method, so it is for long term traders....

I track sequential to know the overall market activity expected...but if in sequential sell phase , if market starts upmove, we will go long and encash that upmove. Also in downmove we will be short and enjoy that too. Markets never go up/down in straight line. I am very sure that we will have strong upmoves also on the way down. One upmove to test the top is expected soon .


Smart_trade

Sir, if we entered after completed sequential 13, but the qualifier close13>12>11 was absent, and we have a stop loss as per this configuration.
Now market did its thing, moved against a bit, and finally gave deferred close 13>12>11.
Now we have a higher candlestick for calculation of stop loss, do we revise our stop now?

Vivek

I think SL 7896 NS for sequential short trade was hit today.Market completed a Combo on Feb 17th.Is this correct Vivek.

According to my calculation on futures chart, stop loss stands at 8953. I have posted combo chart for nifty futures in general thread, I think it completed today.
Reposting:


Vivek