Experiments in Technical Analysis

ragh_ash · #**431** 27th November 2006, 11:26 AM

HI Anant,
first of congrats on gr8 work being done!
i have followed this thread for a long time and literally thousands of my doubts have been cleared just bcose of this thread.
i wanted to add my opinon (for what it counts?)
donot wory abt loss making trades, whipsaws are integral part of Trend trading(that's our theme)
instead let's try trailing stops. also we trade whenever system gives a signal. only then we will be profitable.
to quote ED Seyota
"To avoid whipsaws, don't trade"
regards
PS : it is just my opinion , i may be wrong also!

rahulg77 · #**432** 27th November 2006, 11:44 PM

Hi Karthik,

Another point i thought would be useful to discuss is the number of indicators a person should use. one problem i face continously is my bias coming tilting decisions the way It wants it to. if i think of a stock to buy and start to study it. I see many indicators and some or the other indicator shows what i want to see. so basically we should keep a fixed number of indicators we refer to and not add every other time and that will help keep the bias view away.

Can we use fibonacci and bollinger with other indicators. i am using RSI with a smoothed rsi. i use MACD. and apart from this I am using support resistance and volume. would adding fibonacci interfere with support levels or can we use it to just see projections and with the indicators I am using will bollinger be a addon or will it not fit in with the other indicators. there has to be a set of indicators that work with each other( based on how they are calculated, periods and what they use to be calculated) and some that dont fit the team of indicators we are using. when i was doing my hotel management and were learnign about cocktails there were certain alcohols we could mix and some we could not based on certain criterias :-) . Wonder if itwould be same with indicators. because a combination and weightage of diff indicators/alcohol in the right amount would make the difference :-)

Any Views on this.

Rahul

karthikmarar · #**433** 28th November 2006, 10:50 AM

Hi All

Here is a Trading system based on KAMA. ( Hope CV would pardon me for using the word system..

)

Seems to catch the upmoves early and exit correctly.

There are two adjustable parameters "Sensitivity" and "Finetune" provided for adjusting the BUY and SELL points.

Play with these adjustments and check it out.

For short term trades put the Finetune adjustment to values less than 1.00. Position trades are better with values above 1.

Explanation Later. Checkout and provide your feedback.

Enclosing the Afl. MS guys will have to wait...sorry..

regards

Karthik

sivavkm · #**434** 28th November 2006, 11:32 AM

Thank you for considering me in your beta testing

For those who couldn't digest the code (like me),
I have done some polishing to it for better understanding,
like changed variable names, added comments and links to MetaStock code.
MS Code : http://trader.online.pl/MSZ/e-w-Kauf...verage_II.html
http://trader.online.pl/ELZ/t-s-Adap...ge_System.html

Please find the attached modified afl.

Thanks & Regards
Siva

rahulg77 · #**435** 28th November 2006, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sivavkm

Thank you for considering me in your beta testing

For those who couldn't digest the code (like me),
I have done some polishing to it for better understanding,
like changed variable names, added comments and links to MetaStock code.
MS Code : http://trader.online.pl/MSZ/e-w-Kauf...verage_II.html

Please find the attached modified afl.

Thanks & Regards
Siva

Hi siva,

Thanks for the MS code. when we put the indicator on the price chart it ask for some variables. fast end factor, slow end factor, periods and prices scores. what would be entered for all these and what difference do they make.

karthik, thank u also to bring this to our notice. whever u have time it would be nice to understand what this indicator is trying to tell us and how these variables make a difference to it.

regards

Rahul

ragh_ash · #**436** 28th November 2006, 07:18 PM

HI karthik,
attached is report on backtest for S & P 200 list.
in fact all the afl's posted on this thread are giving gr8 results if used with Nifty,JrNiftyor S &P 200.
is it conicidence or am i missing something
(period for backtesting is usually 1/1/06 till date)
regards

karthikmarar · #**437** 28th November 2006, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sivavkm

Thank you for considering me in your beta testing

For those who couldn't digest the code (like me),
I have done some polishing to it for better understanding,
like changed variable names, added comments and links to MetaStock code.
MS Code : http://trader.online.pl/MSZ/e-w-Kauf...verage_II.html

Please find the attached modified afl.

Thanks & Regards
Siva

Dear Siva

Thanks for posting the Afl with explanations.

By the way, Position traders try this one on the weekly.. looks good

warm regards

Karthik

karthikmarar · #**438** 28th November 2006, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ragh_ash

HI karthik,
attached is report on backtest for S & P 200 list.
in fact all the afl's posted on this thread are giving gr8 results if used with Nifty,JrNiftyor S &P 200.
is it conicidence or am i missing something
(period for backtesting is usually 1/1/06 till date)
regards

Hi ragh_ash

The Afls posted so far are primarily designed for the long side and would perform well during the Bull market. The afls posted by me have been tested in real market and have been making money. What we should aim in this thread is to come up with a system, which will perform, on both the Bull and Bear market. If not at least we can also have two systems one for Bull market and the other for the Bear market. Hope we will achieve this objective .

Warm regards

Karthik

karthikmarar · #**439** 29th November 2006, 01:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rahulg77

Hi siva,

Thanks for the MS code. when we put the indicator on the price chart it ask for some variables. fast end factor, slow end factor, periods and prices scores. what would be entered for all these and what difference do they make.

karthik, thank u also to bring this to our notice. whever u have time it would be nice to understand what this indicator is trying to tell us and how these variables make a difference to it.

regards

Rahul

Hi Rahul

I will explain the the Kaufman's adaptive moving averages and its use in our trading system soon. but first the metastock code for the systems..

The code is not a perfect one. Only while coding for MS, I realized the ease of coding and sophistication of Amibroker ( pardon me, Ashish, Joy… can’t but express it)
Also looks like I am losing touch with MS…

Create the following indicators..

KAMA BUY
bPeriods:=Input("Buy Sensitivity",1,10,1);
bf:=Input("Buy finetune",0.1,10,0.1);
bFEndF:= 0.666;
bSEndF:= 0.0645;
bSignal:=Abs(C-Ref(C,-bPeriods));
bDnoise:=Abs(C-Ref(C,-1));
bNoise:=Sum(bDnoise,bPeriods);
bEffRatio:=If(bNoise>0.,bSignal/bNoise,0.1);
bFERatio:=bFEndF*bEffRatio+bSEndF*(1-bEffRatio);
bSmoothF:=Power(bFERatio,2);
bs:=C*bSmoothF+(1-bSmoothF)*PREV;
bFil:=bF * Stdev(bs-Ref(bs,-1),20);
j:=bs-Ref(bs,-3);
bs;

KAMA SELL

sPeriods:=Input("sell Sensitivity",1,10,1);
sf:=Input("sell Finetune",0.1,1,0.1);
sFEndF:= 0.666;
sSEndF:= 0.0645;
sSignal:=Abs(C-Ref(C,-sPeriods));
sDnoise:=Abs(C-Ref(C,-1));
sNoise:=Sum(sDnoise,sPeriods);
sEffRatio:=If(sNoise>0.,sSignal/sNoise,0.1);
sFERatio:=sFEndF*sEffRatio+sSEndF*(1-sEffRatio);
sSmoothF:=Power(sFERatio,2);
ss:=C*sSmoothF+(1-sSmoothF)*PREV;
sFil:=sF *Stdev(ss - Ref(ss,-1),20);
k:=Ref(ss, -3)- ss;
ss;

Create an Expert Advisor – AMA SYSTEM

Buy symbol formula
Cross( FmlVar("KAMA BUY","J"), FmlVar("KAMA BUY","BFIL"))

Sell Symbol formula
cross( FmlVar("KAMA SELL","K"), FmlVar("KAMA SELL","SFIL"));

Hope it works for you… It did for me …

Regards

Karthik

swagat86 · #**440** 29th November 2006, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by karthikmarar

Hi ragh_ash

The Afls posted so far are primarily designed for the long side and would perform well during the Bull market. The afls posted by me have been tested in real market and have been making money. What we should aim in this thread is to come up with a system, which will perform, on both the Bull and Bear market. If not at least we can also have two systems one for Bull market and the other for the Bear market. Hope we will achieve this objective .

Warm regards

Karthik

hi karthik, my first post in this thread. Well, i had been lookin at this space but never posted because of not much knowledge of the technicals and the Big daddy AFL. But of corse i can use the AFLs of the thrad. I must tell u both Mabiuts and KAMA(hope no parents around

) are rockin. I Just tried with intrday data (15 mins and horly) and it looks gud. can u giv me some more idea abt Fine tune and Sensitivity. And regarding bear markets system, the same AMA system can be used. Where ever there is a Sell signal we can short it there. What u say? In near future i will also try to pool in some simple Systems ( CV mujhe maaf karna) here.

Thanks for a gr8 thread.
Sory to b too late.

Similar Threads for: Experiments in Technical Analysis
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Technical Analysis Course	snowy	Technical Analysis	28	7th November 2008 07:37 PM
Technical analysis course	sh50	Seminars & Tutors	18	10th June 2007 03:46 PM
Hello everybody.Technical Analysis	vijay chauhan	Introductions	2	30th May 2007 03:09 PM
Technical Analysis	crosscurrency	Forex	0	30th October 2005 11:00 PM