Sensex at 10K : are we ready ?

vince · #11 29th January 2006, 03:54 PM

Hi Agilient,

I do believe that predicting the markets often proves to be a futile exercise. I as a trader would rather concentrate on trading the markets . Where they choose to go is for the markets to decide and makes no difference to a trader.

With due respect and no offence to technical analysts of CLSA or elsewhere the markets have often cocked a snook at their predictions and gone on to do just the opposite with complete impudence.

Regds

Agilent · #12 29th January 2006, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vince

Hi Agilient,

I do believe that predicting the markets often proves to be a futile exercise. I as a trader would rather concentrate on trading the markets . Where they choose to go is for the markets to decide and makes no difference to a trader.

With due respect and no offence to technical analysts of CLSA or elsewhere the markets have often cocked a snook at their predictions and gone on to do just the opposite with complete impudence.

Regds

Sure Vince, but you will agree.... the market can not continue rising indefinitely, and the bull trend has GOT TO run out of steam some time. Look at the big picture (see link) .... come now, its been one hellava long run, from mid 2001 ! Punctuated by only one solitary 'Secondary' correction (early 2004)

http://finance.*****.com/q/bc?s=%5EB...off&z=l&q=l&c=

Dont you think that time is near? Maybe just a few months or weeks away ?

And this is not just based on a wild hunch. One has to realise that growth in corporate earnings (EPS) ....the real driver of the markets ... is bound to slow down, after 3 or 4 yrs of rise.

So that's my take. And so I am going to take some money off the table next week. Even if a major reversal does not come about soon, at least a short term correction is overdue I think.

Lets have some more views .

AGILENT

Agilent · #13 30th January 2006, 10:55 AM

Folks.. this is what it looks like at 11 am ... somewhat of a damp squib... but do not lose heart , this correction could turn out to be only short-lived.

http://finance.*****.com/q/bc?s=%5EB...off&z=l&q=l&c=

Agilent · #14 31st January 2006, 10:29 PM

Well 10 k still remains elusive !

http://finance.*****.com/q/bc?s=%5EB...=on&z=l&q=l&c=

I think the market is just teasing us (eager bulls) much like a shy lover teasing the other partner before giving in fully.

But eventually the target HAS to be attained .

Good luck !

Agilent · #15 2nd February 2006, 02:29 PM

Well folks, don't tell me I havn't warned you about this correction.

OOOOh .........the tantalising wait continues. When, oh when will the climax come ??

http://finance.*****.com/q/bc?s=%5EB...off&z=l&q=b&c=

moneylaundrer · #16 2nd February 2006, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agilent

OOOOh .........the tantalising wait continues. When, oh when will the climax come ??

Forgive me for my perverted mind..but this is 2 funny

Cheers
ML

Agilent · #17 3rd February 2006, 12:09 AM

Thanks ML for your reaction.

Well honestly I am relieved to know that at least someone out there has grasped the intent of my recent posts.

There's nothing funny in what I said ... ML. But seriously, life often presents strange analogies which, when pondered over thoughtfully, illustrate the wonderful ways of nature and how we can learn from them (even in our money making pursuits)

On a more serious note, I am beginning to fear that my own apprehension of last week (on this thread) about a possible imminent reversal in the bull trend could well turn out to be true after all. I did take some money off the table on Monday... just wishing now I had taken some more off. Alas !

subratabera · #18 3rd February 2006, 11:00 AM

Predicting the markets are not always correct and it is not a good practice also. But there is an excitement always there to predict the future especially in share-market. If you ask me then fundamentally as well as technically there is no reason to worry about. There is a lot of money coming into the markets on a daily basis. FIIs and FIs are investing a lot of it still now. Technically if you draw Fibonacci Retracement lines on NIFTY chart from 2310 level then you will see that 3100 is the minimum target before any correction. The only reason to panic is this year's budget which I hope will be good for the markets. If all remains well then we will see a new high regularly...
Thankyou.

Subrata Bera.

bharatk8 · #19 3rd February 2006, 11:31 AM

it is premature to predict onset of bear trend.traditionally end of bull run is marked by a scam.as there is no news of scam in the air, only corrections can be expected.as current rise is gradual,we can not expect deep correction similliar to one witnessed in october.

raj_pisces4u · #20 3rd February 2006, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vince

Hi Agilient,

I do believe that predicting the markets often proves to be a futile exercise. I as a trader would rather concentrate on trading the markets . Where they choose to go is for the markets to decide and makes no difference to a trader.

With due respect and no offence to technical analysts of CLSA or elsewhere the markets have often cocked a snook at their predictions and gone on to do just the opposite with complete impudence.

Regds

Ya Vince,
I agree with you that its difficult to predict the behaviour of market. If market behaves the way everyone expects than no would earn much as compared to case when everyone expect increase and it corrects or vice versa.
When people estimate the market level they considers the Efficient Market Hypothesis. But according to me market is far from being EFFICIENT.

Beyond Greed And Fear...

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